Misika yapadziko lonse lapansi yakula kwambiri pazaka khumi zapitazi, makamaka chifukwa chofunidwa ndi mafakitale. Ngakhale misika yotenthetsera ma pellet imapanga kuchuluka kwakukulu kwapadziko lonse lapansi, izi mwachidule ziyang'ana gawo la mafakitale a nkhuni.

Misika yotenthetsera ma pellet yatsutsidwa m'zaka zaposachedwa chifukwa chotsika mtengo wamafuta ena (mitengo yamafuta ndi gasi) komanso yotentha kuposa nyengo yachisanu ku North America ndi Europe. FutureMetrics ikuyembekeza kuti kuphatikizika kwamitengo yokwera yamafuta ndi mfundo za de-carbonization kubweza kukula kwa kufunikira kwa 2020s.

Kwa zaka zingapo zapitazi, gawo la mafakitale a nkhuni la mafakitale linali lalikulu ngati gawo la zotenthetsera, ndipo likuyembekezeka kukulirakulira m'zaka khumi zikubwerazi.
Msika wamafakitale wamitengo yama pellet umayendetsedwa ndi kuchepetsa kutulutsa mpweya wa kaboni ndi mfundo zongowonjezeranso. Ma pellets a matabwa a mafakitale ndi mafuta otsika a carbon omwe amatha kusintha mosavuta m'malo mwa malasha m'malo akuluakulu opangira magetsi.

Ma pellets atha kulowetsedwa m'malo mwa malasha m'njira ziwiri, kutembenuza kwathunthu kapena kuwotcha. Kuti atembenuke kwathunthu, gawo lonse pamalo opangira malasha amasinthidwa kuchoka ku malasha kupita ku kugwiritsa ntchito mapepala amatabwa. Izi zimafuna kusinthidwa kwa kayendetsedwe ka mafuta, kachitidwe ka chakudya, ndi zoyatsira. Co-firing ndi kuyaka kwa matabwa a nkhuni pamodzi ndi malasha. Pamiyezo yocheperako yowotcha pamodzi, kusinthidwa pang'ono kwa malo a malasha opunthidwa ndikofunikira. M'malo mwake, pamaphatikizidwe otsika (osachepera asanu ndi awiri peresenti) a pellets yamatabwa, pafupifupi palibe kusinthidwa komwe kumafunikira.

Kufuna ku UK ndi EU kukuyembekezeka kukwera pofika 2020. Komabe, kukula kwakukulu kukuyembekezeka ku Japan ndi South Korea mu 2020s. Tikuyembekezanso kuti Canada ndi US zizikhala ndi malo opangira magetsi a malasha pogwiritsa ntchito ma pellets amitengo yamafakitale pofika 2025.

Kufuna kwa pellet

Ntchito zazikulu zatsopano zowotcha ndi kutembenuza zinthu ku Japan, EU ndi UK, ndi South Korea, ndi mapulojekiti ang'onoang'ono odziyimira pawokha opangira magetsi ku Japan, akuyembekezeka kuwonjezera matani 24 miliyoni pachaka pazofunikira zomwe zikuchitika pofika 2025. kukula koyembekezeredwa kukuchokera ku Japan, ndi South Korea.

FutureMetrics imasunga nkhokwe yatsatanetsatane yokhudzana ndi projekiti pama projekiti onse omwe akuyembekezeka kuwononga matabwa amatabwa. Zambiri zoperekera ma pellets pazofuna zatsopano zomwe zakonzedwa ku EU ndi UK zakonzedwa kale ndi opanga akuluakulu omwe alipo. Komabe, misika ya ku Japan ndi S. Korea imapereka mwayi kwa mphamvu zatsopano zomwe, makamaka, osati paipi monga lero.

Europe ndi England

Kukula koyambirira (2010 mpaka pano) mu gawo la mafakitale a mitengo yamitengo idachokera kumadzulo kwa Europe ndi UK Komabe, kukula ku Europe kukucheperachepera ndipo kukuyembekezeka kukwera koyambirira kwa 2020s. Kukula kotsalira kwa kufunikira kwa pellet yamitengo yaku Europe kudzachokera ku ma projekiti ku Netherlands ndi UK

Zofuna za mabungwe aku Dutch sizikudziwikabe, chifukwa mafakitale a malasha achedwetsa zisankho zomaliza zogulira zosinthana mpaka atatsimikiziridwa kuti malo awo a malasha apitiliza kugwira ntchito. Ofufuza ambiri, kuphatikizapo FutureMetrics, akuyembekeza kuti izi zithetsedwa ndipo zofuna za Dutch zikhoza kukula ndi matani osachepera 2.5 miliyoni pachaka pazaka zitatu kapena zinayi zikubwerazi. Ndizotheka kuti zofuna za Dutch zizikwera mpaka matani 3.5 miliyoni pachaka ngati malo onse anayi a malasha omwe apatsidwa thandizoli apitiliza ndi mapulani awo.

Ma projekiti awiri aku UK, kusintha kwa siteshoni yamagetsi ya 400MW Lynemouth ya EPH ndi fakitala ya MGT ya Teeside greenfield CHP, pakali pano akutumidwa kapena akumangidwa. Drax posachedwa adalengeza kuti isintha gawo lachinayi kuti liziyendetsa pama pellets. Maola angati omwe unityo idzagwire chaka sichikudziwika panthawiyi. Komabe, poganizira kuti chigamulo cha ndalama chapangidwa, FutureMetrics ikuyerekeza kuti unit 4 idzadya matani 900,000 owonjezera pachaka. Chigawo chilichonse chosinthidwa pa siteshoni ya Drax chimatha kudya matani pafupifupi 2.5 miliyoni pachaka ngati chikuyenda mokwanira chaka chonse. Mapulojekiti a FutureMetrics akwanira kufunikira kwatsopano ku Europe ndi England pa matani 6.0 miliyoni pachaka.

Japan

Kufuna kwa biomass ku Japan makamaka kumayendetsedwa ndi zigawo zitatu za mfundo: Dongosolo lothandizira la Feed in Tariff (FiT) la mphamvu zongowonjezwdwanso, miyezo yamafuta amafuta a malasha, ndi zolinga zotulutsa mpweya.

FiT imapatsa opanga magetsi odziyimira pawokha (IPPs) mtengo wokhazikitsidwa wa mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa pa nthawi yotalikirapo ya mgwirizano - zaka 20 za mphamvu ya biomass. Pakali pano, pansi pa FiT, magetsi opangidwa kuchokera ku "matabwa ambiri," omwe amaphatikizapo mapepala, mitengo yamatabwa yotumizidwa kunja, ndi chipolopolo cha kanjedza (PKS), amalandira thandizo la 21 ¥ / kWh, kutsika kuchokera ku 24 ¥ / kWh isanafike Sept. 30, 2017. Komabe, ma IPP ambiri a biomass omwe adalandira FiT yapamwamba amatsekedwa pamlingo umenewo (pafupifupi $ 0.214 / kWh pamitengo yamakono).

Japan Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry (METI) yapanga chotchedwa "Best Energy Mix" kwa 2030. Mu ndondomeko imeneyo, mphamvu ya biomass imapanga 4.1 peresenti ya magetsi opangidwa ku Japan mu 2030. Izi ndi zofanana ndi zoposa 26 miliyoni matani a ma pellets (ngati biomass onse anali mapepala amatabwa).

Mu 2016, METI idatulutsa pepala lofotokoza zaukadaulo wopezeka bwino kwambiri (BAT) pazomera zotentha. Pepalali limapanga miyezo yocheperako yamagetsi opangira magetsi. Pofika m'chaka cha 2016, pafupifupi gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu a mibadwo ya malasha ku Japan imachokera ku zomera zomwe zimakwaniritsa muyeso wa BAT. Njira imodzi yotsatirira ndondomeko yatsopanoyi ndikuyatsa matabwa a nkhuni.

Kugwira ntchito bwino kwa zomera kumawerengeredwa pogawa mphamvu zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito ndi mphamvu. Chifukwa chake, mwachitsanzo, ngati malo opangira magetsi agwiritsa ntchito 100 MWh yamagetsi kuti apange 35 MWh, nyumbayo ikugwira ntchito bwino ndi 35 peresenti.

METI yalola kuti mphamvu zamphamvu zochokera ku biomass co-firing zichotsedwe pa zomwe zalowetsedwa. Ngati chomera chomwe chafotokozedwa pamwambapa chiwotcha 15 MWh yama pellets a nkhuni, mphamvu ya mbewuyo powerengera kwatsopano ingakhale 35 MWh / (100 MWh - 15 MWh) = 41.2 peresenti, yomwe ili pamwamba pamlingo woyenera. FutureMetrics yawerengera kuchuluka kwa ma pellets amatabwa omwe adzafunikire ndi mafakitale amagetsi aku Japan kuti abweretse zotsika zogwirira ntchito bwino kuti zigwirizane ndi lipoti laposachedwa la Japan Biomass Outlook lopangidwa ndi FutureMetrics. Lipotilo lili ndi zambiri zomwe zikuyembekezeredwa kwa ma pellets amitengo, zipolopolo za kanjedza, ndi tchipisi tamatabwa ku Japan ndi mfundo zomwe zikuyendetsa kufunikira kumeneku.

The FutureMetrics' kulosera kwa ma pellet kufunikira kwa opanga magetsi ang'onoang'ono odziyimira pawokha (IPPs) ndi pafupifupi matani 4.7 miliyoni pachaka pofika 2025. Izi zimachokera ku kuwunika kwa pafupifupi 140 IPPs zomwe zafotokozedwa mu Japan Biomass Outlook.

Kufunika kokwanira ku Japan kuchokera ku mafakitale opangira magetsi komanso kuchokera ku IPPs zitha kupitilira matani 12 miliyoni pachaka pofika 2025.

Chidule

Pali chidaliro chachikulu pakukula kwamisika yamakampani aku Europe. Zofuna za ku Japan, mapulojekiti a IPP akayamba ndikugwira ntchito ndipo zida zazikulu zimalandira phindu la FiT, ziyeneranso kukhala zokhazikika komanso zikuyenera kukula monga momwe zimaneneratu. Kufuna kwamtsogolo ku S. Korea ndikovuta kuyerekeza chifukwa cha kusatsimikizika kwamitengo ya RECs. Ponseponse, FutureMetrics ikuyerekeza kuti kufunikira kwatsopano kwa ma pellets amitengo yamafakitale mpaka 2025 kukuposa matani 26 miliyoni pachaka.